![]() The Trump brand appears to particularly toxic to Washington swing voters and the State Republican Party has utterly failed to disabuse themselves of it, as Trump-aligned candidates continue to win. Wade abortion rights is likely a huge turnout motivator for the Democratic base, as it should be. Why Democrats outperformed in Washington StateĪ number of explanations have been offered for Democrats relative strength in Washington State. ![]() ![]() The redistricting commission failed to turn in their final map by the required midnight deadline, but because they finished them by morning, the State Supreme Court opted to stay out of it and look the other way. In Washington, Democrats had full control of state government, but they opted to continue to use an evenly split partisan commission (composed of two Democrats, two Republicans) to hash out redistricting maps, with Republican proposing some real doozies. Already blue LD40 next door to LD42 became even bluer while LD42 drifted away from Democrats as they accepted the gerrymanders of the past (which split reliably blue Bellingham) and ongoing compromises. A Republican-controlled state would have taken one look at swing districts like LD42 and found a way to pack their voters into to flip it decisively, but instead Democrats let the opposite happen. Keep in mind, that Republican state legislatures (and a few Democratic ones) across the county have thoroughly gerrymandered their maps to cement and increase their control of state and federal politics. Redistricting ended up making minor changes in LD42, but by losing a small piece of Bellingham, the district seems to have shifted right a bit. If Democrat Sharon Shewmake wins despite a relatively weak 47% showing in the primary, Democrats’ senate advantage appears very likely to actually increase. Since Democrats hold both House seats in this district, but not the Senate seat, this could be where Democrats lose seats in the House, but, if they lose, it’ll be a wash in the Senate. LD42 is a tossup leaning slightly toward Republicans. The primary indicates they are heavy favorites in one of these districts and slight favorites in one, which suggests an 29-20 advantage - even facing supposed midterm headwinds. (Washington Redistricting Commission)īeyond these Democratic strongholds, four swing districts have emerged that could go ping pong back and forth. Here are the LD boundaries for the 2022 election. Republicans are getting shellacked, which suggests a durable Democratic majority in coming elections. They’re winning at least 53% of the vote in all of these districts, and often much more, thus these aren’t close races. ![]() Here’s why.īased on results in the Primary Election thus far, it looks like the new state legislature map, as projected, contains 27 reliable legislative districts (LDs) for Democrats out of 49 total. Looking to ahead to the next few election cycles, it’s also hard to see how Republicans would reverse the hole they’ve dug themselves into. The primary indicates they’re likely to maintain those same advantages, if not gain seats. How wrong they were.Ĭurrently, Democrats enjoy a 57-41 advantage in the State House and a 28-21 advantage in the Senate. Republican pundits were bullish that a midterm election with an unpopular president paired with relatively friendly new legislative district boundaries would provide a path to success, breaking a long run of Democratic dominance in state elections. Primary results continue to trickle in, but most ballots have been counted, and Republican hope of taking Olympia has all but disappeared with their dismal showing. (Credit: Washington State Democrats) Red wave crashes into reality blue tides are rising. Emily Randall, Democrat 26th District - Bremerton, is up for reelection this fall. ![]()
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